Li Qinggong
Battles weaken peace laureate
By Li Qinggong (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-12-14 07:48
In a nationally televised address at the US Military Academy in West Point in New York on Dec 1, US President Barack Obama announced 30,000 more US troops would be sent to Afghanistan as reinforcements in the battle against the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda network, adding that some troops would begin to withdraw from the long-controversial military mission in July 2011.
"As commander-in-chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 US troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home," Obama said.
The US president had ordered 17,000 and 4,000 additional troops on February 17 and March 27, which had raised the level of US forces in the Islamic country to 68,000. The latest deployment plan, if fully implemented, will bring the number to as many as 98,000.
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The erstwhile Soviet Union also launched military offensives in neighboring Afghanistan in 1918 and 1979, both lasting as long as 10 years, but to no avail.
In view of Obama's failure to firmly consolidate his political foundation within the US in the nearly one year after taking office, any accelerated military risks will undoubtedly put his administration's political prospects at risk. The continuation of the protracted war in Afghanistan and the issue of additional military forces to the remote battleground have long been controversial among the US public and politicians. Some US Congressmen have raised doubts over the war in Afghanistan, US military reinforcement plans and allocation of special funds. Some have even urged the government to withdraw troops from the years-long Afghan quagmire, including those from Obama's Democratic camp. Undoubtedly, these controversies and anti-war calls have added to political pressures on the Obama administration.
Also, as the mid-term elections approach, any reckless moves regarding the war in Afghanistan would possibly cause Obama to lose some political marks or even the elections. Should the Democratic Party lose its majority to Republicans in the Congress, the Obama administration would encounter more political troubles.
The eight-year military action in the Afghan battlefield has cost the US more than $243 billion, which is nearly one-third of the money the country has spent on the Iraq war. According to American official statistics, every 1,000 additional troops deployed to Afghanistan will cost another $1 billion. To fund the ever-rising military expense, it is reported that gasoline tax is to be levied on US consumers. Amid the global financial crisis and the economic downturn, an additional $128 billion the Obama administration plans to allocate this year for an unpopular war will undoubtedly prove unpopular with the people.
Some US Congressmen have lashed out at such military plans, saying this sum of money could help stop the US financial and economic landscape deteriorating further if spent on domestic economic and social causes. At a time when the fledging US financial and economic recovery still lacks vigor to change into a lasting rebound, additional military deployment in Afghanistan means an economic risk for the Obama administration.
In addition to a growing burden on US taxpayers, the Afghanistan war has also resulted in more than 900 deaths and 10,000 injuries for US troops. The enormous casualties have not only rocked the morale of Afghanistan-stationed US troops, but have also dealt a heavy blow to the confidence of the US public. As Obama adds more troops to the Afghan battleground, anti-war sentiments within the US public have also been on the rise. The latest opinion poll indicates that about 56 percent are opposed to the military reinforcement plan, and only 35 percent are in favor. The strong anti-war currents in US society are likely to fan a nationwide anti-war campaign, which is expected to weaken the Obama administration's political foundation.
Obama was elected US president with an approval rating as high as 70 percent, only two percentage points lower than former president John Kennedy in 1961. One of the underlying reasons for such a high degree of positive opinion should be attributed to the announcement of plans to end the Iraq war upon his election. However, less than a year after he was sworn in, Obama has unveiled three military reinforcement plans in Afghanistan, which have contributed to his plunging approval rating.
According to a recent survey by CNN, Obama now enjoy a 50 percent non-support ratio, the first time since he took office as US president that it has exceeded his support ratio, which the poll shows stands at 48 percent. A Gallup poll also shows that Obama's approval rating has declined to 49 percent, the first time it has fallen below 50 percent. The fall in public approval is best testimony that the US president's military plans in Afghanistan are damaging his image.
The author is deputy secretary-general of the China Council for National Security Policy Studies.
(China Daily 12/14/2009 page4)
